What to do about Putin & why did he invade Ukraine anyway?
Why did Putin invade Ukraine? Obviously it endangers him. Sure, he’s an ex-KGB thug, but has he gone crazy? Analysis by Professor Mearsheimer in 2015 explains the rationale & seems to have been spot-on here
NATO ~in Ukraine is an existential risk to Russia (2300 km open border, can cut off black sea and expand to the Volga, has newfound energy reserves that can undermine RU sales to Europe), and NATO wouldn’t take it off the table, but took steps in that direction. NATO previously expanded in 2 waves to 13 countries. Ukraine was the red-line for Putin.
When the USSR moved to put nukes & bases in Cuba, the US threatened WW3. It’s part of the Monroe Doctrine to keep any foreign power out of the Western Hemisphere. It’s a 19th century realpolitik balance of power politics thinking. China is the same in their region. But when it comes to Russia, it’s as if the West thought Putin would sing 21st century Kumbaya, and sit quietly while NATO pushes into Ukraine, cutting his legs off. Did the establishment care? It did the same in Georgie — let Georgia think they’ll get in NATO, and it got clobbered by Russia.
The war industry doesn’t care. They’re happy to keep selling weapons, when the West’s anti-fossil-fuel energy ensures that the West, instead of being energy independent, “has to” go into oil wars in Iraq, Afghanistan (pipeline?), and Russia, all while they buy oil from these same petro-states.
Putin didn’t invade because of the 14,000 pro-Russian Ukrainians killed by the UA ultra nationalists since the 2014 coup, though he used that as a justification as well. Putin also claims he’s fighting neo-nazis. While Putin’s intentions are likely elsewhere, what’s this about Nazis in UA? The media (now) says it’s false, but previously had exposed it. White-nationalist forces in UA’s national guard (including Svoboda, C14, and Azor Battalion) are not insignificant, but more important is their outsized control over the government. Watch how this Neo-Nazi explains it: “Sure we were only 10% but we did 90% of the damage. If it weren’t for us the 2014 coup would turn into a gay parade… Unify the White Nations… We love killing… We have the most Javelins in Europe and we’ll use them on whoever gives them problems” This is known, and you can find out more from any mainstream sources mentioned here.
Putin also wants the newly-found UA shale oil & gas to not undermine his sales to EU. Large reserves have been found near the Donbass in the east, in the west, and 2T cubic meters of gas near Crimea. This new UA oil & gas would help Ukraine get into NATO. Crimea is currently being restricted fresh water by Zelensky blocking the river, and threatening any gas operations there as well. Putin needs to remove that block in the interior. These are some of the power politics reasons Putin invaded. Here’s a good video that explains more about the 2300 km border, Carpathians defense, & Volga river exposure. Great video on this here.
The good news about all this is that he’s probably not looking to recreate a USSR Iron Curtain around Poland etc. Such vast ambition would destroy him, and Putin is said to be smart enough to know this.
OTOH people worry that as Putin considers nuking non-nuke nations, maybe even NATO ones, it’s not clear MADD deterrence applies. The West wouldn’t nuke back Moscow, cuz that would be the end of the world.
Here’s a great Jesse Waters episode on the energy & Russia issue here
Some fantasize about getting rid of Putin, as if this isn’t a power politics play for any Russian regime. After Putin, there will still be 6000+ nukes in the hands of ex-KGB warring underlings & oligarchs. If Putin feels threatened he may press red buttons.
While Putin threatens with nukes, he pays “green” groups to stop fossil & safe nuclear energy production to keep his energy sales coffers flowing. We can get nearly endless & safe energy from atoms, but anti-CO2 advocates want to go back to windmills that aren’t yet viable after 30+ year money showers, or dream of solar powered homes in Europe. Sure, that’s nice for about 2–3 months. How about the rest of the year?
The worse the inefficiency for a critical good like energy, the bigger government corruption can grow far more powerful than even big oil lobbies. CO2 cult is over $1.5 trillion/year, funded by government FIAT, united by global unscientific political theology.
Anyone can study, in 10 minutes, billions of years of history where 10x variation in CO2 didn’t cause climate change, but followed it. There’s much more, but that’s enough to undo a theory. This lunacy is finally waning somewhat in Germany, but not yet in USA
The best way to collapse the Russian energy-military complex is to ramp up fossil fuels production in the west & USA, but Biden’s Democrat party kills fossil fuels production in the US. Meanwhile, they rely on Putin to negotiate US buying oil from Iran. The war industry loves inevitable problems with this strategy.
Fossil fuels could be ramped up now, ASAP, by millions of barrels/day, and within months if not weeks, it’ll help collapse the Russian energy-military complex without a shot.
But the CO2 cult won’t have it. It wants very high energy prices so that “green” (a misnomer, because CO2 is plant food) could have a better chance to compete while billions of people struggle to heat & cool their homes & improve their lives.
For a real mind twist, watch Ukraine on Fire